During the holiday period, international crude oil plummeted, styrene and butadiene closed lower in the US dollar, some ABS manufacturers’ quotes fell, and petrochemical companies or accumulated inventory, causing bearish impacts. After May Day, the overall ABS market continued to show a downward trend. As of now, the average market price of ABS is 10640 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 26.62%. The construction of petrochemical plants remains at a high level, with some manufacturers building at full capacity and overall supply not decreasing, while the channel inventory of traders is at a high level; Terminal demand is weak, the market is full of negative impacts, ABS production capacity is increasing, agency pressure is high, and some agents are losing money in shipping. Currently, market transactions are limited.

Affected by the news of crude oil production reduction, manufacturers’ quotations have stopped falling and stabilized. Some market traders have speculated in early shipments, and market transactions only need to be maintained; But after the holiday, due to high channel inventory, poor shipping performance of traders, weak market transactions, and a decline in some model prices. Recently, due to the convening of the Shenzhen Plastic Expo, traders and petrochemical factories have participated in more meetings, and market transactions have become increasingly light. On the supply side: The continuous increase in operating load of some equipment this month has led to an overall increase in domestic ABS production and high industry inventory. Although some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, the downward trend in the market has not been changed. Some traders will ship at a loss, and the entire market will ship.
Supply side: An ABS device in Shandong started maintenance in mid April, with an estimated maintenance time of one week; Panjin ABS device single line restart, another line restart time to be determined. At present, the low price supply in the market continues to impact the market, and the market supply remains unabated, resulting in a continuous negative supply side.
Demand side: The overall output of power plants has decreased, and terminal demand continues to be weak, with most of the downstream only needing it.
Inventory: Manufacturers’ prices continue to decline, traders make profits from shipping, overall trading is poor, inventory remains high, and inventory has dragged down the market.
Cost profit: ABS profits have significantly shrunk, traders have lost money and sold goods, downstream demand is limited, manufacturers’ inventory continues to accumulate, and the ABS market continues to decline, making it difficult for merchants to be optimistic. The current average cost of ABS is 8775 yuan/ton, and the average gross profit of ABS is 93 yuan/ton. The profit has dropped to near the cost line.
Analysis of Future Market Trends
Raw material side: Fundamentals are a long short game, with macro pressure. Butadiene entered the maintenance season in May, but downstream profits remain under pressure. In May, some downstream industries also had relatively concentrated parking and maintenance. It is expected that the butadiene market will experience weak fluctuations next month; It is recommended to closely monitor the changes in crude oil prices and the trend of comprehensive raw material prices.
Supply side: The production capacity of new equipment continues to be released, and ABS low-priced materials continue to impact the market, resulting in an unabated supply. The overall market mentality is empty. It is recommended to closely monitor the start and stop of petrochemical plant equipment, as well as the production of new equipment.
Demand side: There has been no significant improvement in terminal demand, the market is full of bearish positions, and the recovery is not as expected. Overall, the main focus is on maintaining rigid demand, and the market supply and demand are imbalanced.
Overall, some manufacturers are expected to see a decrease in production in May, but the overall operating rate of the ABS industry is still high, with slow pick-up and delivery. Although the supply has decreased, the impact on the overall market is limited. It is expected that the domestic ABS market price will continue to fall in May. It is expected that the mainstream quotation for 0215AABS in the East China market will be around 10000-10500 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of around 200-400 yuan/ton.