With the arrival of 2024, the new production capacity of four phenolic ketones has been fully released, and the production of phenol and acetone has increased. However, the acetone market has shown strong performance, while the price of phenol continues to decline. The price in the East China market once dropped to 6900 yuan/ton, but end users timely entered the market to restock, resulting in a moderate rebound in price.

In terms of phenol, there is a possibility of increasing the downstream bisphenol A load as the main force. The new phenol ketone factories in Heilongjiang and Qingdao are gradually stabilizing the operation of the bisphenol A plant, and the expected external sales of phenol with new production capacity are decreasing. However, the overall profit of phenolic ketones has been continuously squeezed by pure benzene. As of January 15, 2024, the loss of the outsourced raw material phenolic ketone unit was around 600 yuan/ton.

In terms of acetone: After New Year’s Day, port inventories were at a low level, and last Friday, Jiangyin port inventories even reached a historical low of 8500 tons. Despite an increase in port inventory on Monday this week, the actual circulation of goods is still limited. It is expected that 4800 tons of acetone will arrive at the port this weekend, but it is not easy for the operators to go long. At present, the downstream market of acetone is relatively healthy, and most downstream products have profit support.

The current phenolic ketone factory is experiencing increased losses, but there has not yet been a situation of factory load reduction operation. The industry is relatively confused about market performance. The strong trend of pure benzene has driven up the price of phenol. Today, a certain Dalian factory announced that the pre-sale orders for phenol and acetone in January have been signed, injecting a certain upward momentum into the market. It is expected that the price of phenol will fluctuate between 7200-7400 yuan/ton this week.

An estimated 6500 tons of Saudi acetone are expected to arrive this week. They have been unloaded at Jiangyin Port today, but most of them are orders from end users. However, the acetone market will still maintain a tight supply situation, and it is expected that the price of acetone will be between 6800-7000 yuan/ton this week. Overall, acetone will continue to maintain a strong trend relative to phenol.